The undated report issued by the National Air and Space Intelligence Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH, finds that Russia and China are poised to field new stealth bombers as soon as 2025 and 12 foreign fifth-generation fighter aircraft programs are now in development — including systems designed to challenge the F-22A Raptor and F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. This document was released in Sept 2016.
I find this document disturbing with respect to our ability to ponder future air superiority with or without an A2/AD network superiority effort. We are quickly facing a dozen nations with high performance platforms that can challenge our past mission successes….and that’s on aircraft. We haven’t even addressed radars or air defense systems. In many cases, its not about parity with an F-22 or an F-35, but shear numbers of “good enough” platforms. The compounded concern to air superiority is our march to unmanned and remotely piloted air systems without spectrum supremacy. Most UAV operations are operating without counter air or EW environments. I think we are “over-rationalizing” success against our last recent wars. While all of this is going on, selected legacy platforms are in sacrifice to our new air platforms. We definitely need high performance strike and bomber systems, but I think we need a fighter aircraft that has high performance features but also a viable sticker price to complement it.
There are many other material and electronic features beyond stealth. We cannot “Nordic Track” into the future and hope everything will be OK. The greatest minds need to look at electric propulsion, hypersonics, caseless munitions, graphene and carbon nanotube composite framing, etc. We also need to get beyond business as usual in EW, and radar systems. We cant do everything, but are we doing anything?
Preview attachment air threat2.pdf
John Sojka
I agree with this. In WWII, we beat superior German armor with Sherman Tanks that were “good enough” and outnumbered their counter parts. What is this 2025 stuff? The Russian Sukhoi T-50 and China’s J-20 are hear now.
Frank Prautzsch
Agree. The T-50 and J-20 are just the tip of the iceberg. While we try to catch up with this capability, Russia and China are going to continue to modernize these platform types and many others, beyond this baseline.
John Sojka
The mood of the country is Globalist and Socialist in nature. Many believe we should be one and at parity with the world. The idea of being the best and on top is being touted as wrong in schools and by our youth. How do we switch from putting money in to social programs and back in to technology leadership programs? Maybe we need another Pearl Harbor or 911. I hate to say that, but people are fickle and forget history easily.